This Friday, September 11, 2020, marks the 19th anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the United States, which occurred on September 11, 2001. It is a day when we are tasked to never forget what happened, as well as to never forget the lessons that came out of that horrific day. More importantly it is a day to never forget all of the lives that were lost, from the crew and passengers on the four planes that went down, to the people in the World Trade Center Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, and to the first responders on the ground. There were many brave souls who gave their lives for others on that day, and in the the subsequent wars that came out of the attacks. There would also be more loss of life in terrorist attacks that have occured around the world over the last 19 years. All of this loss, and the evil that is behind all of it, is why we must "never forget." As I have done for the last 18 years, I will be getting on a plane, flying United Airlines from Los Angeles to Newark in the morning, and returning the same day.
With the Covid-19 pandemic, 2020 is turning out to be an especially difficult year, and it is understandable that any remembrances of the events from nineteen years ago may not carry the same weight for some as they did before the pandemic. Sadly the pandemic is forcing the cancellation of many annual events commemorating the day; however, there are a couple of positive notes. The first is that the 9/11 Memorial in New York will re-open for families this Friday, and will be open to the public beginning September 12. The second is that 19th Annual Anniversary Observance will go on as planned at the United 93 Memorial in Pennsylvania. As in years past, the President and other dignitaries will be in attendance.
What is common to the events of 9/11/2001 and this year's pandemic is the impact on the airline industry and the travel industry at large. Just as with 9/11, the Covid-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented drop in demand for travel. For airlines, 2019 was a record year in terms of number of passengers carried, as well as profits. Then in 2020, with a flick of the switch, as the virus began its spread across the globe, airlines saw demand drop precipitously. Average load factors dropped down to the single digits. Daily screening counts for the TSA went from millions of passengers to less than 25,000. Demand has rebounded, but for this fall, it is expected to remain at less than 50% of the levels for the same period last year.
I have been wanting to write about what has been going on for months now, but could not put together anything with any note of optimism. The loss of jobs is staggering, and the resulting hit to the economy is even more staggering. With the hopes that this crisis would resolve itself in less than a year, the U.S. government has has already pumped $6 trillion in the economy to soften the blow. Everyone is hoping that Congress will approve another aid package to add another $3 to $4 trillion. The unanswered question is when and where to stop. Projections show that total U.S. debt in 2021 will exceed our annual Gross Domestic Product. Everyone agrees that we will not see any significant recovery until a safe vaccine or cure has been developed. We just do not know when that will happen.
Unless another economic aid package is passed by Congress and the President before the end of September, U.S. airlines will be laying off hundreds of thousands of employees. There just is not enough demand to support current levels of staffing without sending an airline into bankruptcy. Not only will there be layoffs of airline employees, there will be more layoffs in airline related services such as catering, aircraft servicing, baggage handling, and TSA screening. Then there are layoffs in airport food service and retail outlets, layoffs in air traffic control, as well as airport infrastructure services such as police and parking. Many small airports could lose all airline service. U.S. airlines are also the largest purchasers of U.S. oil. The ripple effect will put millions more on the unemployment rolls for years to come.
The point of all this is to give you an understanding of why the current battle in Congress for additional aid focuses a lot of attention on the airlines. It also heightens the debate of whether propping them up with printed money is the right thing to do in the long term. The only answer right now is "yes." Before the pandemic set in, the U.S. economy was expanding at record levels not seen since World War II. It has been six months since everything started shutting down in the U.S., but there remain hopeful signs in the economy, housing being a good example. In addition, there is pent up demand for services that were forced to shut down. People want to get out of the house and go to the office or to school. They want to go shopping, eat out at restaurants, see a movie, get a haircut and go to the gym. The sooner a vaccine is available, the sooner that this pent up demand will be released and turn things around. It is that pent up demand that is the key, and the best way to keep that demand level up is by keeping people optimistic. The more people become disillusioned, the more they will hold back on their spending, and the changes we were forced to make to ride out the pandemic will lead to a permanent retraction in our economy.
To clarify - taxpayers are not handing out free money to the airlines. They will be required to pay it back. In addition, those that remain employed will continue to pay income and payroll taxes, and they will not be receiving unemployment benefits. The sooner the airlines and travel related business get back to profitability, the sooner they will be paying corporate income taxes. The challenge to get the additional aid package passed is Congress. This is no time for our representatives in Congress to be adding on extras such as aid to cities who have mismanaged their pensions, or to charitable organizations with large endowments such as the Ford Foundation or Kennedy Center. The aid package should focus on two things, (1) businesses that have been impacted by the pandemic, large and small. Businesses that will keep people employed and re-hire those that have been laid off; and (2) the unemployed, so that they can continue to remain in their homes and feed their families until they can go back to work. I would like to urge everyone reading this to contact both U.S. Senators from their respective states, as well as their congressional representative from their district. You can find telephone and e-mail contact information at https://www.usa.gov/elected-officials. Your vote keeps them in office, and you have the right to demand that they act in the best interest of all citizens. To make an impact, this Friday, September 11, would be a good day to let your voice be heard.
I would like to end this post by talking about United Airlines. As I write this, there are a couple of bits of positive news. First, an agreement has been reached to avoid involuntary furloughs for United pilots. I do not know all of the details, and I wish I could report the same news for United Flight Attendants and other employee groups, but this is positive news, and I hope for more to come. Second, United has announced new service to Hawaii, India and South Africa beginning in December. To make such an announcement, United management must see some recovery on the horizon.
As you all know, every year on September 11, I fly cross country on United Airlines to show my support and to thank as many employees as I can for their hard work and dedication. This is especially important this year as they continue to put themselves on the front line of the battle to make sure our journeys are safe. I have been asked if getting on a plane is wise right now, especially if I do not need to make the trip. My response is that United has taken every precaution to make sure employees and customers are as safe as possible, and more importantly, I do need to make the trip.
To close - I would like to repeat my call to action and plead with United management to bring back the tulip, if only on enough planes to remember the United employees, and the United planes that were lost on September 11, 2001. I cannot think of a better way for United management to show their commitment and appreciation to those on the front line keeping the skies friendly.
Safe travels to you all, and thank you for everything that you do for us customers.
No comments:
Post a Comment